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The TickWise Tick Index

How bad will tick season be where you live?

Two views of every state: our risk level for the season, and what CDC's own case counts say about whether Lyme is spreading. Tap a state for both. This past winter was the second-warmest on record nationally (NOAA), though the Northeast, where most Lyme occurs, ran cooler than average.

Is Lyme getting worse where you live? In 12 states and D.C., CDC's own numbers say yes. Comparing 2012–14 with 2017–19 (before CDC's 2022 counting change), reported Lyme rose fastest in West Virginia (6.8 → 40.8 cases per 100,000 people), Ohio (0.8 → 2.9) and Michigan (1.3 → 3.2). Of the 16 jurisdictions CDC counts as high-incidence, 7 rose, 7 held about steady, 1 fell (Connecticut) and 1 has no comparable data (Massachusetts).

CDC Lyme surveillance data 2012–2023 · rates from US Census Bureau estimates · How we calculate it
2023

AK
ME
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
VT
NH
OR
ID
WY
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
NJ
MA
CA
NV
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
CT
RI
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
DC
DE
OK
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
TX
FL
Low Moderate High Severe
Sources: CDC · US Census · NOAA · TickWise assessment

Tap or click a state to see its risk level and Lyme numbers.

What the risk levels mean

Our editorial assessment for the season. Severe covers the 16 jurisdictions CDC classifies as high-incidence for Lyme disease. High, Moderate and Low reflect where CDC maps disease-carrying ticks (blacklegged, lone star, American dog tick) as established and which tick-borne diseases are reported there.

Low

Ticks present but disease incidence is low. Standard precautions on trails.

10 states Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

Moderate

Lone star and dog ticks active spring through fall. Repellent advised for grass and woods.

15 states Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and Washington.

High

Established blacklegged (deer) tick population. Lyme and anaplasmosis reported. Treat clothing with permethrin.

10 states Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee.

Severe

Among the highest Lyme incidence in the nation. Peak nymph activity May–July: permethrin on clothing + 12-hr skin repellent, daily tick checks.

15 states + D.C. Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Washington, D.C.

How we calculate it

  • Source. CDC's public-use Lyme disease surveillance data (confirmed and probable cases by state of residence), with US Census population estimates for rates per 100,000 people.
  • Trend. The average rate in 2017–19 divided by the average in 2012–14: 2× or more is "much more", 1.25× or more is "more", 0.8–1.25× is "about the same", below 0.8× is "less" and below 0.5× "much less". We stop at 2019 because COVID disrupted reporting in 2020–21 and CDC changed its case definition in 2022.
  • Low numbers. States that averaged under 50 cases a year in both periods, or under 1 case per 100,000 people in both, get no trend: a few dozen cases swing a lot from year to year, and in low-incidence states many patients were infected while travelling.
  • Reporting changes. Years a state didn't report, or where it changed how it counts, are left out. Massachusetts stopped following up positive lab tests in 2016, so its CDC counts fell 95% for reasons that have nothing to do with ticks; it gets no trend here. CDC also warns that before 2022 some high-incidence states, New York among them, used their own surveillance methods, and that budget and staffing changes can move a state's counts from year to year. A trend here is what the reported numbers say, not a precise measure of risk.
  • Risk levels are our editorial assessment (described above the table), separate from the CDC numbers.

Download the data (CSV): every state and year with reported cases, rate per 100,000 and notes. Free to reuse with credit to TickWise (CC BY 4.0); the underlying CDC and Census data are public domain.

Questions

Is Lyme disease getting worse?

Yes in 12 states and D.C., by CDC's own numbers. Comparing 2012–14 with 2017–19, reported Lyme per person rose there, held about steady in 8 states and fell in Connecticut. The biggest increases: West Virginia (×5.9), Ohio (×3.7), Michigan (×2.5) and Washington, D.C. (×2.3). In the other 28 states cases are too few, or the data too patchy, for a trend. Reported numbers also depend on how hard each state looks for cases, so read a trend as a signal, not a precise measure of risk.

Why did Lyme cases jump in 2022?

Mostly because of counting. From 2022, CDC's case definition lets high-incidence states report a case from a positive lab test alone, without the clinical follow-up needed before. New York, for example, reported 4,243 cases in 2019 and 22,173 in 2023. CDC says the new numbers can't be compared with earlier years, which is why our trend stops at 2019.

Which states have the most Lyme disease?

Per person, in 2023: Rhode Island (259.0 cases per 100,000 people), Vermont (223.1), Maine (209.8), West Virginia (183.2) and Massachusetts (137.3). In total cases, New York (22,173) and Pennsylvania (16,671) reported the most. These 2023 figures use CDC's new case definition, which counts far more cases in high-incidence states than before.

Where does this data come from, and can I use it?

From CDC's public-use Lyme disease surveillance data (confirmed and probable cases by state of residence, 2012–2023), with US Census Bureau population estimates for the rates. You can download our state-by-year table as a CSV and reuse it with credit to TickWise (CC BY 4.0). The underlying CDC and Census data are public domain.

Regional briefings so far: Maine and the South — which ticks, which months, which diseases. Travelling outside the US this year? Our sister site NoBites Abroad has bite-risk guides for Ireland, Greece, the Netherlands, Malaysia and Barbados.

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